Russian Orcs in Lieu of Aliens, for now.
National and corporate actions during this war will, hopefully, establish a new standard for what kind of conduct is acceptable.
The war in Ukraine has been very enlightening in so many ways. We have learned that despite symbolic efforts in the past, the West can actually impose damaging economic sanctions. We have learned that there is a broad sense of corporate responsibility that will unilaterally commit to their own kinds of sanctions. At the same time, we have affirmed that there are companies that do not have a moral conscience – more about them later. We have learned how poorly the Orcish armed forces (as they are often called in Scandanavia and Eastern Europe) have been maintained and trained. We have learned of significant shortcomings in the technological performance of Russian military equipment. We have learned that, like NAZI Germany, Putin’s government must heavily control/edit the news lest it be toppled for incompetence, irresponsibility, theft, and crimes against humanity. It has become obvious that due to the lack of any true charity, kindness, civility, Putin and Chechen leader Kadyrov falsify stories, stage events, and simply lie because they know their credibility would quickly evaporate in the wake of the truth.
There are so many topics to be explored and investigated. All of these issues are not really new; however, they should now be so obvious that they are widely accepted.
The formation of Russia’s government after the fall of Putin will be interesting. Will a true democratic structure take hold? Will the oligarchs help transform Russia for the benefit of all Russians, or will they seek to prop up a new ‘democratic’ autocrat to sustain their lifestyles and system as before, albeit with some sort of newly created public myth of change? To what degree will Russian citizens be active in establishing their new government; will they simply accept whatever is prescribed by the elite class they are deferential too, or will they finally express their intellect, social conscience, and courage to force true change?
We must not forget the lessons to be learned from other international actors when given their opportunity to take a stand with respect to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
China was an ardent supporter of Russia and there is evidence that they provided at least some cyber support prior to the Russian invasion. I am sure we will learn of other kinds of aid. However, Chinese leadership is also reasonably cautious. Seeing the swift economic sanctions was almost certainly a profound event for Xi Jinping. Despite what appears to be popular domestic support for his expanding military and alliance with Russia, Xi realizes that his economy is more dependent on trade than Russia’s and China would be more swiftly and substantially ruined by similar sanctions. Despite different economic models, China is very much like Russia inasmuch as it is an autocracy that needs to exercise aggressive control over media to sustain control over its population because the truth would undermine the myth created by the leadership.
The UN General Assembly resolution “deploring” Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and demanding immediate and complete withdrawal of all Russian forces from Ukrainian territory must not be forgotten. 140 countries voted in favor of the resolution, including Serbia; take note of those that didn’t.
Siding with Russia in voting against the resolution were Belarus, North Korea, Eritrea, and Syria. No big surprises here, but let’s not forget about it in the future as we engage in international trade and relations. These countries are clearly on the Russian side and there is no reason their current governments should be trusted in any way by countries that are opposed to the actions of Russia.
35 countries abstained. These countries are also not worthy of being trusted because they are clearly willing to side with Russia but are aware of the potential costs of doing so. Notable amongst them are China, South Africa, Vietnam, Pakistan, Iraq, Bolivia, Algeria, Mali, Tanzania, and Kazakhstan. Amongst the most surprising abstentions were India, Israel, and UAE.
India, given their substantial border issues with Russia’s ally China, seems bizarre. Prime Minister Modi has always appeared to be willing to sacrifice India’s territorial claims simply to get along and perhaps stay in power and increase his personal wealth. I suspect that most Indian’s disagree with his approach to international relations; we will see. There is a long history of defense procurement and aid, but evidence of the poor performance of this equipment and Russian military tactics, should steer India quickly away from Russia and energetically to Western Europe and the United States; if not, then follow the money.
Israel, although often matched with the United States when it comes to foreign policy and relations, should definitely not be characterized as an all-out US ally. Israel has compromised United States’ interests often via the unauthorized transfer of defense technology, the manipulation or control of intelligence at the expense of the United States, and simply via direct espionage within the United States that too often has been cast as being insignificant because it is Israel. Although masses of people and many politicians in the US are very trusting of Israel, there is expertise within the US intelligence community, and population in general, that are wary of the relationship.
With respect to UAE, reports about the reasons for their abstention are loosely framed as related to regional defense issues and military aid. The US has a large presence in UAE, which means that the UAE abstention should be studied carefully when it comes to assessing how close US defense and intelligence assets should be shared with UAE.
Although the West may have lost some clear focus over the past few decades with respect to national alignments while focused on transnational threats, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reminds us that the totalitarian countries still think and act as they always have. So, let’s not conveniently forget this lesson and commit to alliances and trade amongst the like-minded democratic nations of the world. Enriching Russia and China through trade, pumping countless resources and funds into Afghanistan and Iraq in hopes of some sort of ideological transformation, have been foolish policies that are the result of not appreciating the fundamental differences in ideology that will always lead to conflict; it is simply whether the West chooses to provide money, technology, and expertise that creates a less stable world and near-peer competitors.
And with respect to the Western companies that choose to still do business with Russia; I suspect many investigations are already underway to discover what your motivation is, because no reasonable entity would choose your path.